A new round of refined oil price adjustments in China is set to take effect at midnight tonight， marking the sixth increase in domestic oil prices this year.
Multiple industry analyses indicate that an upward adjustment is highly probable. Earlier geopolitical tensions in the Middle East led to a significant surge in international crude oil prices. Although the situation has since eased and the crude oil price variation rate has declined from its peak positive values， the current data still meets the conditions for a retail price hike. This anticipated adjustment is likely to culminate in the first “triple consecutive increase” of the year.
As of the ninth working day， the comprehensive crude oil price variation rate stands at 5.55%. The projected increase in oil prices is 260 yuan per ton， which translates to approximately 0.20 yuan per liter. Consequently， refueling a typical 92-octane gasoline vehicle is expected to cost about 10 yuan more.
Prior to this upcoming adjustment， China’s domestic oil prices have undergone twelve adjustment windows this year， resulting in five increases， five decreases， and two periods of stagnation. After factoring in these fluctuations， gasoline and diesel prices have seen a net decrease of 330 yuan and 315 yuan per ton， respectively， compared to the end of last year.
If this adjustment is implemented， the year-to-date price change in 2025 will be characterized by “six increases， five decreases， and two periods of stagnation.”
