Rapidus Targets 2nm Production in Two Years; Experts Warn of Grim Aftermath Without Success

Japan’s Rapidus Joins Advanced Semiconductor Race with Ambitious 2nm Goal

The global race for advanced semiconductor manufacturing, once dominated by giants like TSMC, Samsung, and Intel, has seen a new formidable contender emerge: Japan’s Rapidus. In a significant move to reclaim its former glory in the semiconductor industry, Japan has pooled the resources of several major corporations to establish Rapidus, aiming to compete at the cutting edge of chip technology.

Rapidus was founded in 2022, spearheaded by Japan’s Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI). It represents a joint venture involving industry heavyweights such as Toyota, Sony, NTT, NEC, Kioxia, and SoftBank. The company’s ambitious objective is to establish a state-of-the-art semiconductor fabrication plant, leveraging a partnership with IBM to directly pursue the production of 2-nanometer (2nm) process technology. This direct leap to advanced nodes signifies a strategic intent to bypass intermediate stages and quickly establish a competitive presence.

The progress of Rapidus has been remarkably swift. By the end of last December, the company had already installed new-generation equipment, including EUV lithography machines. The first successful chip exposure occurred in April of this year, and on July 18th, Rapidus unveiled its 2nm wafer prototype, setting a target for mass production by 2027. This aggressive timeline suggests a high level of commitment and efficient execution from the outset.

Historically, Japan was a titan in the semiconductor industry during the 1980s. While it remains a crucial global supplier of semiconductor materials and equipment, it has lagged in advanced process technology for years, with its domestic leading-edge processes previously topping out at the 28nm level. Therefore, Rapidus’s direct aim for the 2nm era has sent ripples of surprise globally, indicating a significant shift in Japan’s semiconductor strategy.

Should Rapidus successfully achieve mass production of 2nm technology by 2027, Japan would undoubtedly re-emerge as a pivotal center for advanced semiconductors on the world stage. This would not only make it an attractive partner for major global players like Apple, NVIDIA, AMD, and even Intel, but it would also establish a new pillar of industry for Japan. This is particularly significant as Japan’s traditional economic backbone, the automotive industry, faces increasingly fierce global competition.

The Japanese government has demonstrated substantial backing for Rapidus’s mission. Beyond providing policy support and streamlining regulations, it has committed significant financial resources. An additional investment of ¥100 billion is planned for late this year, bringing the total committed investment to ¥1.7 trillion, which is approximately $12 billion USD. This substantial financial commitment underscores the strategic importance Japan places on regaining leadership in advanced semiconductor manufacturing.

However, such a colossal investment also raises concerns. The potential repercussions of a Rapidus failure are a subject of considerable debate. Professor Hideki Wakabayashi of Kumamoto University and a member of METI’s Semiconductor and Digital Industry Strategy Committee has voiced such concerns, suggesting that a failure in the Rapidus initiative could lead to Japanese semiconductor equipment and materials companies, where Japan still holds advantages, relocating their operations overseas. This, he warns, could lead to Japan losing its edge in advanced logic chip manufacturing.

In essence, Rapidus’s 2nm endeavor represents a high-stakes gamble for Japan. The success or failure of this ambitious plan will undoubtedly shape the future landscape of the global semiconductor industry and Japan’s role within it. The question remains: how probable is Japan’s success in this critical undertaking?


Japanese company Rapidus aims for 2nm chips in two years; expert warns of dire consequences of failure

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