On Tuesday， September 10th， AT&T CEO John Stankey indicated that the era of supercharged iPhone sales has likely passed， unless Apple achieves a significant breakthrough in artificial intelligence (AI).
“My gut feeling is that we’re at a stage… where I no longer see ‘super cycles’ as a primary driver of its development，” Stankey stated at the Goldman Sachs Communacopia+ Technology Summit.
In iPhone parlance， a “super cycle” refers to a period of exceptionally high sales driven by a perfect storm of new features， design changes， and pent-up demand， leading a large number of consumers to upgrade simultaneously.
Stankey elaborated that without substantial software advancements， particularly in AI， Apple may find it challenging to replicate its past iconic sales surges.
“These devices are increasingly becoming software-driven，” Stankey explained. “Software enhancements are often iterative and not necessarily tied to the launch of a new hardware platform. And as software continues to get more powerful， that’s what will drive user engagement and usage.”
Apple recently held its fall product event， unveiling the iPhone 17 series， AirPods Pro 3， and Apple Watch Series 11， among other products. However， the company did not announce significant moves in the AI space this week.
Since the AI boom began in 2023， Apple has lagged behind other tech companies in AI development. The company had planned to launch its new version of Siri with integrated AI features in the first half of this year， but this plan was postponed due to challenges in AI research and development.
As Apple has been slow to deliver notable results in AI， Wall Street has begun to question its future prospects. Year-to-date， Apple’s stock price has fallen by over 9%， significantly underperforming most of its “Magnificent Seven” peers， with only Tesla faring worse. In comparison， the S&P 500 has gained 11% this year.
In contrast， Google has heavily showcased AI capabilities in its latest Pixel phone series.
Stankey suggested that without a clear leap forward， the iPhone 17 series might be viewed as a “routine upgrade” rather than an essential， must-have disruptive product.
“I expect there will be a segment of consumers who feel compelled to buy a new device，” he said. “But I don’t think we will see record-breaking queue-up scenarios.”
This observation marks a stark contrast to the glory days of the iPhone， when “super cycles” – years marked by significant design overhauls or disruptive features – drove consumers to throng Apple stores and propelled its stock to new heights.
Stankey further commented that it remains to be seen whether Apple can develop applications that make the iPhone indispensable. He also pointed out that Apple’s AI offerings must differentiate themselves from “other AI tools or devices.”
